Oscar Predictions 2019

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Jeff Turner
CONTRIBUTOR

The 2019 Oscars have been unique to say the least. Normally, a typical slate of Best Pictures will feature mostly good movies with a few mediocre ones, but what stands out is that many of the nominees are flat out dishonest and bad.

“Vice” is one of the leading films with eight nominations, which is inexplicable. “Green Book,” has been dogged by controversy, ranging from the family of Don Shirly, the person the film was based on, accusing screenwriter Nick Vallelonga of fabricating the whole story, director Peter Farrelly having to apologize for flashing people in the past, and Vallelonga affirming President Trump’s assertion that Muslims were celebrating in New Jersey on 9/11. “Bohemian Rhapsody” director Bryan Singer continues to weather rape allegations.

“The Favorite” and “Roma” lead the pack with ten nominations. It will be an interesting ceremony and for today we will go over Best Picture, Best Director and the acting categories.

The Oscars will air live on Sunday, Feb. 24 on ABC.

BEST PICTURE

The Nominees

“Vice”

“The Favourite”

“Roma”

“Bohemian Rhapsody”

“Green Book”

“A Star is Born”

“Black Panther”

“BlackKKlansman”

Who Will Win: “A Star is Born”

This seems to be a movie tailor made to the Academy’s sensibilities, but it depends on how much of the “old guard” are still a part of the academy. It’s a good enough movie that evokes old Hollywood.

Spoiler: “BlackKklansman”

The Academy likes to seem topical and this seems like the most likely choice they’d go for. “Black Panther” is nominated too, but its nomination seems ceremonial at best.

Who Should Win: “Roma”

Should Have Been Here: “Leave No Trace”, “Widows”

 

BEST DIRECTOR

The Nominees

Spike Lee, “BlackKklansman”

Alfonso Cuaron, “Roma”

Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite”

Adam McKay, “Vice”

Pawel Pawlikowski, “Cold War”

Who Will Win: Spike Lee “BlackKklansman”

Lee is the sort of long term, long overdue Oscar bridesmaid that the Academy loves. On top of that, they’re likely to be looking to give awards to as many non-white people as possible, especially considering the talented people of color that seem to have been snubbed this time (cough cough Boots Riley).

Who Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron “Roma”

Should Have Been Here: Debra Granik “Leave No Trace”

 

BEST ACTOR

The Nominees

Christian Bale, “Vice”

Bradley Cooper, “A Star is Born”

Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”

Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”

Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”

Who Will Win: Christian Bale “Vice”

He gained wait and does a neat impression. Bale’s Cheney, who has no problem stomping on the Constitution, behaves like an unhinged ruler, yet he does it with the officious calm of a civil servant.

Who Should Win: Bradley Cooper “A Star is Born”

Should Have Been Here: Lakeith Stanfield “Sorry to Bother You”

 

BEST ACTRESS

The Nominees

Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”

Glenn Close, “The Wife”

Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”

Lady Gaga, “A Star is Born”

Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

 

Who Will Win: Glenn Close “The Wife”

Close is long overdue for an Oscar and does great work in a movie relevant to the “#MeToo” movement. Plus, Close won the Globe and is the most likely pick.

Who Should Win: Olivia Colman “The Favourite”

Should Have Been Here: Viola Davis “Widows”, Thomasin McKenzie “Leave No Trace”

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The Nominees

Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”

Adam Driver, “BlackKklansman”

Sam Elliot, “A Star is Born”

Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Sam Rockwell, “Vice”

 

Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali “Green Book”

Ali’s performance is the one aspect of “Green Book” that has remained universally praised. He’s won all the awards so far, a snub seems unlikely.

Who Should Win: Adam Driver “BlackKlansman”

Should Have Been Here: Daniel Kaluuya “Widows,” Michael b. Jordan “Black Panther,” Ben Foster “Leave No Trace”

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The Nominees

Amy Adams, “Vice”

Marina de Tavira, “Roma”

Regina King,“If Beale Street Could Talk”

Emma Stone, “The Favourite”

Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”

 

Who Will Win: Regina King “If Beale Street Could Talk”

King won the Globe and on top of that she is genuinely excellent in the movie. A snub is possible, but King has been so good for so long. The win would be long overdue.

Spoiler: Amy Adams “Vice”

Who Should Win: Regina King “If Beale Street Could Talk”

Should Have Been Here: Tessa Thompson “Sorry to Bother You”, Elizabeth Debicki “Widows”

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