Oscar Predictions 2019

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Jeff Turner 
CONTRIBUTOR 

The Oscar nominations for 2019 are now out, and now it’s time for some hot takes. The categories we will be reviewing are best picture, director and the acting categories.

BEST PICTURE – THE NOMINEES

“Ford vs. Ferrari”

“Parasite”

“1917”

“Little Women”

“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”

“Joker”

“The Irishman”

“Marriage Story”

“Jojo Rabbit”

WILL WIN – “1917”

SPOILER – “ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD”

SHOULD WIN – “PARASITE”

SHOULD’VE BEEN HERE – “MIDSOMMAR,” “HUSTLERS,” “A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD”

The big winners at the Golden Globes were “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” and “1917.” The betting money goes to “1917” as it’s the less controversial choice (and it was the winner for director at the Globes). “Hollywood” has a polarizing ending and a director that tends to be his own worst enemy. “1917,” while I have not seen it, seems like a choice that would inspire less complaints. This is the least frustrating category on the list, however.

BEST DIRECTOR – NOMINEES

Todd Phillips “Joker”

Bong Joon-Ho “Parasite”

Quentin Tarantino “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”

Martin Scorsese “The Irishman”

Sam Mendes “1917”

Who Will Win – Sam Mendes “1917”

Should Win – Bong Joon Ho “Parasite”

Should Have Been Here – Ari Aster “Midsommar”, Lorene Scafaria “Hustlers”

The “one-shot” gimmick in “1917” will play well, although it would be disappointing for Ho to get snubbed, as his direction in “Parasite” is peerless and pitch perfect.

I would have loved to see a choice like Scafaria or Aster or perhaps someone unconventional like Jorden Peele … someone surprising—it’s a predictable roster of nominees, in truth.

BEST ACTOR – NOMINEES

Joaquin Phoenix “Joker”

Leonardo Dicaprio “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”

Antonio Banderas “Pain and Glory”

Adam Driver “Marriage Story”

Jonathan Pryce “The Two Popes”

WHO WILL WIN – Joaquin Phoenix “Joker”

WHO SHOULD WIN – Antonio Banderas “Pain and Glory”

Phoenix is the best part of “Joker” and, barring a snub due to his controversial speech at the Golden Globes, he will win his first, well-deserved Oscar.

But I posit – the Oscars could be more international in the work they acknowledge. Give the trophy to Antonio Banderas for “Pain and Glory.”

BEST ACTRESS – NOMINEES

Scarlett Johansson “Marriage Story”

Cynthia Erivo “Harriet”

Saorise Ronan “Little Women”

Charlize Theron “Bombshell”

Renee Zellweger “Judy”

WHO WILL WIN – Renee Zellweger “Judy”

WHO SHOULD WIN – Scarlett Johansson “Marriage Story”

SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE – Lupita Nyong’o “Us”

As far as I can ascertain, Johansson gives the best performance of those nominated. She’s been so good for so long and yet, since she’s spent all this time in the spotlight doing Marvel movies, people have forgotten that ScarJo is capable of turns like in “Lost in Translation,” “Her,” or “Under the Skin.”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – NOMINEES

Margot Robbie “Bombshell”

Florence Pugh “Little Women”

Kathy Bates “Richard Jewell”

Laura Dern “Marriage Story”

Scarlett Johansson “Jojo Rabbit”

WHO WILL WIN – Laura Dern “Marriage Story”

WHO SHOULD WIN – Laura Dern “Marriage Story”

SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE – Jennifer Lopez “Hustlers”

Dern is fantastic – she offers depth and thorough characterization in her excellent performance. It is possible to perceive her character as ‘excessively mean,’ but by the end of the movie it becomes clear that this is character is a great lawyer who prides herself on being a great lawyer.

Dern has swept up all the awards she’s been nominated for thus far and there’s no reason to believe she won’t continue that hot streak. It’s well-earned—she’s a great talent.

J-Lo should be here, though. There’s no great excuse for the snub.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – NOMINEES

Brad Pitt “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”

Al Pacino “The Irishman”

Joe Pesci “The Irishman”

Anthony Hopkins “The Two Popes”

Tom Hanks “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”

WHO WILL WIN – Brad Pitt “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”

WHO SHOULD WIN – Tom Hanks “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”

SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE – Vilhelm Blomgren “Midsommar”

Pitt is good in “Hollywood,” but Hanks is perfect as Mister Rogers. It’s a career best turn, and for Tom Hanks that is not something that should be said lightly. He won’t win, which is admittedly disappointing.

The Oscars will be live on Sunday, Feb. 9 at 8 p.m., Eastern.

 

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